Appendix A: Jack Reacher Fifty-Fifty Quotes

This appendix collects many lines from Lee Child’s Jack Reacher series where Reacher interprets uncertain outcomes as “fifty-fifty” chances. These examples are referenced in our blog post on teaching probability and illustrate the equiprobability bias in action.

1. The Midnight Line (p142)

“Fifty-fifty right or wrong. Not bad odds.”

2. The Affair (p260)

“‘Flip of a coin,’ I said. ‘A fifty-fifty chance. Either Butler’s buddy screwed up her case numbers or she didn’t.’”

3. Persuader (p156)

“Arranged my coat around me so that both of the guns in my pockets were resting in my lap. I was ready to pull them out and use them if a cell phone rang. It was a fifty-fifty chance that the next call these guys got would be because someone had found Doll’s body.”

4. Never Go Back (p86)

“Would Susan Turner get a new lawyer that afternoon? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. Like heads or tails, like flipping a coin. Then: Would that new lawyer be a white male? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. And then: Would first Major Sullivan or subsequently Captain Edmonds be in the building at the same time as Susan Turner’s new lawyer? Assuming she got one? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. And finally: Would all three lawyers have come in through the same gate as each other? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. Four yes-or-no answers, each one of them a separate event all its own. Each one of them a perfect fifty-fifty chance in its own right. But four correct answers in a row were a six-in-a-hundred improbability.”

5. Never Go Back (p250)

“‘Do you really think Edmonds will get us the file on 3435?’ ‘She either will or she won’t. It’s about fifty-fifty. Like the toss of a coin.’”

6. Never Go Back (p358)

“Reacher said, ‘It’s always fifty-fifty, Pete. Like tossing a coin. Either I’m wrong, or I’m right, either you bring us back, or you don’t, either Deputy Chiefs are what they say they are, or they’re not. Always fifty-fifty. One thing or the other is always true.’”

7. Never Go Back (p363)

“‘These are professional weapons handlers. That’s all they do.’
‘Fifty-fifty, Susan. Either it’s all they do or it isn’t.’”

8. Never Go Back (p367)

“‘She’s a lawyer. You’re not. You’re the guy with the coin. Either Montague is Romeo or he’s not. It’s exactly fifty-fifty.’
‘That’s like going to Vegas and betting the mortgage on red.’
‘An even chance is a wonderful thing.’”

9. Never Go Back (p370)

“Was he a drone, or was he ahead of the curve? Fifty-fifty, Reacher thought, like everything else in the world.”

10. Never Go Back (p375)

“‘If he calls.’ ‘Fifty-fifty. Either he does, or he doesn’t.’”